Victory Formation at the White House?

As the Presidential election draws near and early voting gets underway, one thing seems certain: Joe Biden will win the popular vote. And this may be a meaningless consolation prize in a race that I believe is trending toward a comeback electoral college win by President Donald Trump.

The phrase "October Surprise" comes up now and again in association with Presidential politics. It was first coined in 1980 by an optimistic but cautious Ronald Reagan, who suspected that Jimmy Carter would negotiate or attempt again to force release of the Iranian hostages to tilt what was thought to be a close election until the last few days before it happened. 

The term can now be applied to any last-minute occurrence that could tip the balance of votes. In this instance, it means electoral votes. Democrats can take little comfort in the fact that they have won the popular vote in six of the last seven Presidential elections. Just ask Al Gore and Hillary Clinton what it feels like to win the popular vote. It sure doesn't get you to the White House.

And this specter looms large over Joe Biden.

President Trump testing positive for COVID-19 is an October Surprise. It places him in identity with the 7.6 million Americans (and counting) who have suffered infection. It allows him to demonstrate toughness and tenacity in overcoming the disease to get back on the campaign trail. It casts him as a real person who can feel the pain of the pandemic just as anyone else who catches the virus. It makes credible his efforts to prioritize the economy over safety restrictions in businesses and public places.

The chaotic debate in Cleveland is not an October Surprise, and I did not watch it. I don't defend rudely talking out of turn by anyone, but Trump's brash dominance is pure ecstasy to his most passionate supporters. It also is an advantage for him in this race.

And the surprises may not be over. News reports indicate that we may or may not learn more about vaccine distribution by election day. But guess who started the "Operation Warp Speed" initiative months ago in an effort to end the nightmare sooner rather than later. Yep. And it could make for a nice photo opportunity and news conference in the next few weeks.

The real problems with the electoral map for Democrats lie in our home region of the South. The party's hard shift to the left in the past couple of decades has rendered it almost non-existent in some Southern states. And if you want a classic example of this, look no further than our home of Tennessee.

Consider this: Since Jimmy Carter carried every Southern state but Virginia in 1976, only Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 has made true inroads in the South. In 1980, Carter carried his home state of Georgia but no other Southern states. In the 1980s, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis had no meaningful appeal with Southern voters and carried no states. At least Dukakis got somewhat close to the South in carrying West Virginia. 

Clinton carried his home state of Arkansas, Al Gore's home of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Louisiana in both of his election wins. In 1992, he also carried Georgia. In 1996, he also carried Florida.

Since then, Al Gore of Tennessee carried zero Southern states in 2000. John Kerry tapped Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate in 2004. The result: Zero Southern states. President Barack Obama carried Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in 2008 and Virginia and Florida in 2012. 

In 2016, Hillary Clinton chose Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate and carried that state but no other Southern states. 

So as you consider the electoral map, consider the South. And consider why President Trump has a real chance to win this election.

James A. Rose

Publisher

Election information from 270towin.com. I highly recommend this site.

Photo: Associated Press