Republicans Should Move on from Trump

In October 2020, I published a post stating that President Trump was about to benefit from some "October surprises", and I hinted that Joe Biden would be unable to carry any Southern states besides Virginia and Florida. For the record, President Trump carried Florida, and President Biden carried Virginia and Georgia.

In February of this year, I admitted that my election prognosticating fell a bit short and also discussed the aftermath of the election. The numbers tell us a lot: The nation grew weary of Donald Trump's abrasive personality, mood swings, and Tweets and wanted a more traditional President sitting in the Oval Office. So they chose the other party and handed the "W" to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. 

While Donald Trump is certainly a polarizing public figure, he has his followers. The post-election protests sadly peaked with vandalism in our nation's capitol building in January. And while the country in general seems focused on vaccinations, overcoming the pandemic in all realms, and moving forward with life as we knew it, the questions about the Republican party remain.

While I am certainly no Republican, I can run some numbers here and give my advice. The best bet will be to find new party leaders who can score victories in the midterm elections of 2022 and compete for the Presidency in 2024.

Booting President Biden out of office may be a moot point when 2024 rolls around. Biden will be 81 then, and let me be the first to speculate that he may retire and open up a door for Vice President Harris to seek the Democratic nomination for President.

But on to the Trump analysis: According to 270towin.com, Trump got 46.5% of the popular vote in 2016 and 47.2% of the popular vote in 2020. Republicans controlled both houses of Congress as Trump took office. Democrats captured the House of Representatives in 2018 and currently hold a 219-211 majority (five seats are vacant due to death or resignation). Due in part to the fact that Trump and the party paid little attention to two special Senate races in Georgia in January, Democrats are the majority party in the United States Senate. While Democrats have only 48 seats, two independents caucus with them. Vice President Harris, as Speaker of the Senate, can break any tie votes.

The bottom line is that Trump lost a national referendum on his administration in 2020 and also selfishly left his party as the minority in both houses of Congress by all but ignoring the special Senate races in Georgia. Of course, Biden also became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to carry the Peach State.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Biden's current job approval rating stands at 53%. For reasons I will never understand, President Trump never seemed to claim credit for the Operation Warp Speed project that he initiated last year to move us quickly to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccinations. But the nation seems to approve of the way Biden has directed doses of the vaccine and shots in arms to the states that are allowing us to get back to our way of life slowly and cautiously.

And while political popularity can be fleeting and volatile, the leader who receives credit for getting us out of the pandemic may find lots of votes for his party both in 2022 and 2024. 

No doubt that Biden's budget infrastructure proposal is liberal. He is liberal, as well - probably more liberal than most Americans. But these are no normal times. And, at least for the time being, Biden is popular. 

As for Republicans, you heard it here: Donald Trump, who will turn 78 in 2024, will not be elected President again. Based on two popular vote losses, the loss of Congressional majorities on his watch, and Democratic inroads into the South in 2020, Republicans would be wise to honor the legacy of the 45th President but to move on to new leadership as the party looks ahead to the next two election cycles.

James A. Rose

Publisher

Photo: AP Images